I Need to Stop Writing Half Posts at 2am
Posted by Noah | Filed under technology
I was just cleaning my drafts folder and goodness I really need to stop writing posts at 2am, so many half finished, junky posts.
Tags: blogging, insomnia, mistakes, sloth, technology
The Value of Using Median vs Mean
Posted by Noah | Filed under general
Sometimes I’ll do little economic calculations of interesting things, like my article on the “Cost of the Ruger 10/22 Rifle Over Time“. When I do this I almost always use median (middle) incomes for comparison rather than mean (average). Few people notice the subtle difference, and when they do often they ask what it is and why I use it.
When it comes to income, median is better. That’s because very rich, and very poor people individual effect the mean a lot, so one billionaire makes it look like we can all afford more. Or a well off city with a large retired population will look much poorer if they’re counted as zero income
However median income is just the value which splits the pack down the middle. 50% of the population has more, 50% less. That makes it very good for looking at actual experience, especially over time because it reflects a fixed percentage of the population. Let’s say we have a very small town with the following hourly incomes:
- Kelly the teacher at $8
- Morgan the tutor at $9
- Renee the ranch hand at $12
- Sam the shop keeper at $13
- Sandy the contractor $35
- Terry the veterinarian at $50
In our little town the mean (average) rate is $21.17, sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? So perhaps you decide to charge $21.17 to mow someone’s lawns. You figure you’d like to make some extra cash and you probably can only do one house per hour including drive time and that price sounds good to you because most people would figure that it’ll save them nearly an hour anyways. There’s a problem with that you see, only one person in our town of six can actually afford it. At-least with the rational of being able to say “Well that’s less than an hour’s wage!” So say Terry does hire you. You’ll make $21.17 with your little Saturday business. But if you charge the median of $12.50 you’ll get $37.50 for your Saturday’s labor, 77% more. Of course this model gets even more important in populations with millions and a individuals worth billions
In 2006 the median US household income was $58,407 the mean income was 32% higher at $77,315, that can cause you a serious issue. To further illustrate this, in 1947 the median was $3,031 and the mean was $3,546 only 14.5% higher. So when you’re comparing affordability over time, it’s even more critical.
I hope that helps.
Cost of the Ruger 10/22 Rifle Over Time
Posted by Noah | Filed under firearms
Preface: The Ruger 10/22 rifle is one of the most popular non-military rifles made by a single manufacturer. It’s a quiet, inexpensive, low power .22 rimfire rifle used for shooting things like cans, bottles, squirrels and etc. Being a semi-automatic discharges one bullet with each pull of the trigger. The 10/22 is very often someone’s first rifle, especially in the US and Canada, many a 16th birthday has been “made” by a 10/22.
I was watching a video about the Ruger 10/22 rifle and the price was mentioned, and how it was priced now, as well as what people have paid for it. That got my wheel turning, and I thought I would do some calculations.
Using the current 10/22-RB model, which I understand is the closest to the original (although no expert) and working backwards from today with the official US inflation data (not the Cost of Living Index) we get some interesting numbers.
Working backwards
2009 $269
2004 $234.68
1994 $184.12
1984 $129.08
1974 $61.25
1964 $38.51
Working forward (using the original MSRP)
1964 $54.50
1974 $86.67
1984 $182.99
1994 $260.55
2004 $332.10
2009 $373.59
That’s a 39% more than you’d pay now! Or you could look at it as paying 28% less than you might expect.
That’s very interesting, however official inflation data is seldom realistic (in my opinion). That’s probably because it comes from governments with a vested interest in making it seem lower than it really is. So on to something more realistic.
In 1964 50% of American households had an income of $6,957 or greater (median*), a 10/22 was 0.78% of that.
In 2008 the median household income was $52,163, and currently a a 10/22-RB is $269 or 0.51%
Thus (by my calculations,) it’s now 35% more affordable than when it was new.
If you wanted to do a better comparison of what the actual economic experience would be like, comparing CLI adjusted percentage of disposable income in the target demographic would probably be better, but I just don’t have the data.
* I’m going to make another simple post explaining why I use median incomes when I do this sort of thing rather than mean incomes.
Tags: econom, economics, firearms, history, inflation, perspective, pricing, rifles